Impact of COVID-19 on Business Valuation 新冠疫情對商業評估的影響

在疫情衝擊下，2020年的環球經濟受重創，不少企業舉步維艱，市場劇烈波動。在目前大環境下，黃瑋博士於資本雜誌提出，獨立非執行董事要審慎履行職責，及時瞭解企業可能出現的損失與風險，監督管理層制定應對措施並進行適時披露。其中，審閱減值測試時要把握的一個原則是一方面要關注新冠疫情是否已經構成觸發商譽、無形資產和固定資產減值的因素，另一方面也要關注企業是否借新冠疫情過度減值而損害股東利益。

黃瑋博士提出，對不同的商業評估來說，估值方法的選擇與合理假設以及參數的引用均應充分反映對疫情影響的預期。這些商業評估可以是收購價值攤分、減值測試，也可以是可轉股債券、增額借款利率或預期信用損失。比如減值測試，審計和評估師通常會在報告期間使用一致的估值方法以方便比較，然而，市場的劇烈變化和資訊的缺失可能導致極大的評估不確定性，此時一個有效的減低評估不確定性的做法就是使用多種評估方法進行交叉檢驗；再比如市場法中價格倍數，收益法中財務預測的增長率、折現率中風險溢價以及預期信用損失中前瞻性違約概率等，均應考慮是否已經充分調整以涵蓋疫情影響預期。

Under COVID-19, the global economy has taken a great hit, many enterprises are in difficult times and the market is largely fluctuating. In view of the environment, Dr. Jacqueline Huang stated in Capital Magazine that Independent Non-Executive Directors should look carefully and timely into the possible business risks, and lead the management to formulate appropriate countermeasures and disclosures. When reviewing the impairment tests, the principal is to beware of the damage brought by COVID-19 on goodwill, intangible assets and fixed assets, while determining whether excessive impairment occurs and thereby harming interests of shareholders.

According to Dr. Huang, all assumptions and parameters being used in business valuation should reflect the impact of COVID-19, whether it is about purchase price allocations, impairment tests, convertible bonds, incremental borrowing rates, or expected credit losses. Take impairment test as an example, valuers usually adopt consistent approach for easy comparison. However, intense market fluctuations and information deficiency may create uncertainties, which could be reduced through cross-checking with different valuation methods. Parameters such as price multiples in market approach, long term growth rates in income approach, risk premiums, probability of defaults in expected credit loss shall all be adjusted with respect to the COVID-19 influence.

Reference Link: https://www.hkineda.com/a/113227-cht